German firms announce couplings

   Krauss-Maffei Wegmann of Germany is strengthening its production of armored vehicles through the acquisition of an EDAG business unit.
Two other German companies recently reported the formation of a joint venture to further develop unmanned aerial systems.
The EDAG Group is a German automotive development specialist and KMW is eyeing its production branch for civilian-sector armored vehicle products.
"The extension of our numerous protection activities through the EDAG protection branch is a logical step and, with a view to the site in Mexico, a consistent continuation of our Central and South America strategy", said Frank Haun, president and chief executive officer of KMW.
EDAG's protection branch develops and integrates ballistic protection systems, including protection modules and complete protection kits as well as vehicle superstructure components.
It operates facilities in Ingolstadt, Germany, and in Mexico, which KMW will now take over.
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, which has headquarters in Munich, is a major producer of military vehicles, including main battle tanks. With the acquisition of EDAG it strengthens and broadens its market offerings and position, including in Latin America, where KMW has supplied armored patrol vehicles to Brazil's armed forces.
Financial terms of the acquisition weren't disclosed.
Meanwhile, in Europe's aerospace sector, German companies Cassidian and Rheinmetall AG plan to establish a joint venture for further development of Rheinmetall Defense Electronics subsidiary's work on unmanned aerial systems.
Under the agreement, Cassidian will hold 51 percent of the joint venture's shares.
"As Europe's leading provider of Unmanned Aerial Systems, we see this as a logical step towards expanding our present UAS programs," said Cassidian Chief Executive Officer Stefan Zoller.
We can offer our global customers a full product range of customized solutions, including tactical UAS and UAS for medium- and high-altitude."
Added Klaus Eberhardt, chairman of the executive board of Rheinmetall AG, "First and foremost, our goal is to strengthen the Airborne Systems product unit in a sustained way, providing it with new opportunities for marketing its state-of-the-art products in years to come."
The companies said the joint venture would continue Rheinmetall's manufacturing of the KZO unmanned reconnaissance system and Heron UAS.

Israeli paras prep for airborne strikes

  The Israeli military has conducted its first full-scale parachute exercise for its airborne brigade in 15 years as part of military preparations for "any possible scenario" and "potential regional changes," including long-range assaults.
Amid the tensions sweeping the Middle East, and the possibility of a war involving Israel against Iran and Syria plus their allies Hezbollah and Hamas, that suggests the Israelis could be thinking of using paratroopers to hit key targets, such as missile launch sites and depots, inside hostile territory.
At least 1,000 paratroopers took part in the drop in the Jan. 17 Negev Desert in southern Israel, the army said.
"We're restoring a capability that we once had," the airborne brigade commander, Col. Amir Baram, declared ahead of the mass jump from U.S.-built C-130 Hercules transport aircraft.
"We can't know what will happen in the changing Middle East and every Western military which respects itself needs to know how to parachute large forces, bring them together and then launch an attack."
The last time the paratroop brigade had a full-strength training drop was in 1997.
The last time the brigade went into combat in force by air was in the 1956 Sinai Campaign against Egypt, when paratroopers seized the Mitla Pass on the western side of the peninsula ahead of ground forces.
Israel's military commanders fear that in the event of a major new conflict, possibly triggered by the worsening confrontation between Iran and the West in the Persian Gulf, the Jewish state will come under an unprecedented and sustained missile and rocket bombardment that could last for weeks, with potentially calamitous consequences.
Underlining the urgency of military preparations to deal with this onslaught, the mass parachute drop was conducted at night, giving weight to the supposition that a surprise air assault by hundreds of elite troops may be under consideration.
As things stand now, a major attack on Israel would largely be conducted at long range, and would be primarily countered by Israel's strategic missile forces, the air force and even the navy's missile-firing submarines.
The army and its armored divisions of Merkava Mark-4 battle tanks would play little role -- except for elite Special Forces units operating behind the lines to target missile sites and storage depots -- and paratroopers.
The most probable targets for airborne forces would be Hezbollah's fortified missile depots in the Bekaa Valley in northeastern Lebanon along the border with Syria.
The Israel military believes the Shiite movement, supported by Iran and its Arab ally Syria, possesses more than 42,000 missiles and rockets.
Hundreds of these are deemed capable of hitting anywhere inside the Jewish state, including all major cities and towns as well as strategic targets such as air bases.
Iran is believed to have in excess of 150 Shehab-3b ballistic missiles, while Syria has hundreds of Soviet-designed Scuds, M600s and other weapons able to hit Israel.
The Israeli army has frequently carried out airborne raids using relatively small commando forces transported in helicopters over the years. But to concentrate a sizeable force, such as the airborne brigade, in one place at one time would involve large, and unwieldy, numbers of helicopters.
One possible target for a mass combat jump would be in the Sinai Peninsula, which Israeli strategists view as a danger since Egyptian authorities lost control of the desert zone following the February 2011 overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak.
Islamist organizations now operate there without much hindrance from Cairo, still convulsed by political turbulence nearly a year after Mubarak's downfall.
Israelis fear that if the new powers in Cairo seek to scrap or significantly amend the historic 1979 peace treaty with Egypt, Sinai could again become a combat zone 32 years after it was demilitarized.
Last week's brigade-size paratroop exercise underlines how the Israeli military is scrambling to adjust to the new realities in the Middle East, where long-suppressed Islamist parties are winning overwhelming support in landmark elections and alarming Israeli leaders.
In December, the Israeli military formed a new formation known as the Deep Corps which combines all Special Forces units under one command for secret operations to be conducted in hostile territory.
The paratroop brigade's exercise dovetails neatly into the new special operations offensive concept the military is honing to hit Israel's enemies on their own turf.

Elbit Systems Wins Third Customer for Hermes 900 UAS

Elbit has won the third customer for its new Hermes 900 MALE UAS system. Photo: Elbit Systems

Elbit Systems has recently won the third customer for its Hermes 900 Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). The contract worth about $50 million was awarded by a governmental agency in the ‘American continent’, for use in ‘perimeter security’. The contract includes the Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAS platform, along with Universal Ground Control Stations (UGCS), and highly advanced DCoMPASS multi-sensor Electro-Optical payload systems, and satellite communication (SATCOM) systems. The UAS will be operated in a variety of perimeter security missions.
According to Elad Aharonson, General Manager – Elbit Systems UAS Division, the Hermes 900 is establishing its position as perimeter and security missions in addition to its role as an intelligence gathering asset. “The added value is the unique advantage of the common ground control station for both the Hermes 900 and the Hermes 450 array, allowing enhanced operational flexibility and cost effectiveness” Aharonson added.
The Hermes 900 UAS builds on the vast operational experience accumulated by the Hermes 450, the backbone of the Israel Defense Forces’ UAS operations. Hermes 900 offers a range of enhanced capabilities, from higher flight altitude (up to 30,000 ft) to longer endurance and larger payload capacity. The system’s unique structure enables it to carry a variety of payloads in different shapes and sizes for quick “conversion” between payload configurations.
SATCOM integration opens new capabilities for Hermes systems operators, beyond conventional Line of Sight (LoS) used in current systems. Supported by SATCOm links, a UAV like the Hermes 900 can deploy from a main operating hub, to patrol areas at ranges limited only by the fuel it carries. According to ELbit Systems, the Hermes900 with flight endurance of more than 30 hours, can, with the use of SATCOM, drastically extend its flight range from 300 km (conventional line of sight) to 2000 km via Satellite. Another benefit is the ability to deploy the Hermes 900 from forward bases in theater, while maintaining the mission control center in a remote and convenient location. In theater, reliance on SATCOM link to and from the mission control station enables the UAV to descend to very low altitude (thus gaining higher resolution images), without the limitation of LoS obstruction caused by topography.

Syria Receives 72 Yakhont Missiles from Russia

The Yakhont is launched vertically from its mobile carrier. Once airborne, the missile is pointed to the target's direction, opens its air scoop for the ramjet to kick in.

December 2, 2011: Russia has supplied two Bastion coastal missile systems to Syria, concluding a controversial $300 million arms deal inked with the Syrian government four years ago. Russian sources claim the new missile system will “enable Syria to protect its entire coast from a possible seaborne attack”, the delivery of these medium range shore-based anti-ship missile system is taking place as the Syrian regime is extremely unstable. If the Asad regime falls, these weapons could be transferred to his allies – Iranian backed Hezbollah, or fall into the hands of extremist islamic factions fighting the regime. The Bastion battery comprises 18 mobile launchers each carrying two 3M55E Yakhont supersonic cruise missiles capable of striking surface targets on land and at sea at a range of 300 km, with their devastating 200 kg warhead. With these parameters, such missiles could put at risk elements of the Six Fleet patrolling the eastern Mediterranean, as well as Israel navy vessels and Israeli offshore rigs.

The bastion battery comprises eight twin-missile mobile launchers, command and control vehicles and logistics support trucks.

Part of the Bastion battery shown in a group picture in Russia.

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US Navy Completes Raytheon Laser-guided Maverick Testing

   The U.S. Navy completed developmental and operational testing (DT/OT) of the newest variant of Raytheon's laser-guided Maverick missile. This brings U.S. Sailors and Marines one step closer to conducting airborne precision engagements of rapidly moving targets in urban environments.
"In numerous conflicts, Maverick has proven its effectiveness against ships, tanks, fast moving vehicles and fortified personnel," said Harry Schulte, vice president of Raytheon Missile Systems' Air Warfare Systems product line.
"With the completion of DT/OT, Raytheon can begin producing and delivering this highly accurate weapon to the U.S. and coalition warfighter."
During four DT/OT tests, Navy and Marine Corps aviators fired four AGM-65E2 laser-guided Maverick missiles at moving and stationary targets from F/A-18C/D Hornets, F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and AV-8B Harriers.
During one particularly challenging test, an AGM-65E2 was fired from a Harrier and accurately guided to a rapidly moving target via the laser designator of an AH-1Z Viper helicopter.
About the Maverick Family of Missiles The laser-guided Maverick missile is a direct-attack, air-to-ground precision munition used extensively by the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps in ongoing combat operations. The AGM-65E2/L has an enhanced laser seeker and new software that reduces the risk of collateral damage.
+ Maverick is integrated on 25 aircraft and in the inventory of 33 nations.
+ The AGM-65E2/L can use onboard, buddy and ground-based lasing to designate targets.

TA-50 breaking formation. Photo: KAI TA-50 With the New Year barely underway, South Korea is once again demonstrating a determination to build a formidable military force capable of dealing with potential enemies. The government has signed a $600 million deal with Korea Aerospace Industries (KIA) for 20 FA-50 fighter/attack aircraft based on the highly regarded T-50 advanced jet trainer. KAI is reporting that the aircraft will be delivered between 2013 and 2014. The FA-50 is a lightweight fighter/attack aircraft incorporating the most advanced technology available in the T-50 Golden Eagle family of aircraft. KAI also believes that South Korea may increase the order to as many as 60 aircraft for use as replacements for the aging 150 Northrop F-5 aircraft currently being operated. The FA-50 aircraft ordered are expected to be equipped with the Link 16 tactical link, Elta Systems EL/M-2032 pulse Doppler radar, radar warning systems and a night vision imagery system. Northrop Grumman and Raytheon previously selected the FA-50 as a prime candidate for being outfitted with the same version of active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar slated for use in a United States Air Force F-16 upgrade. The FA-50 is built to carry a weapon’s payload of 9,920 pounds that includes Boeing’s Joint Direct Attack Munitions and Textron’s CBU-97 Sensor Fused Weapon. In addition, the FA-50 is also fitted with a 20mm cannon and is configured to carry air-to-air missiles. KAI has also included in the Golden Eagle family, along with the T-50 and the FA-50, a T-50B aerobatic aircraft and an armed TA-50. All versions of the Golden Eagle family feature a single General Electric F404 engine. South Korea is expected to issue a call for bids for its F-X III project in February to select a replacement for its F-4 Phantom jets. The candidates competing for this lucrative contract include the Boeing F-15 Silent Eagle, Lockheed Martin F-35, Sukhoi PAK FA, and the Eurofighter Typhoon.

   Colombia has bought an Israeli unmanned air vehicle for security patrols on its troubled border with Venezuela and is considering acquiring at least one more, defense industry sources said.
Israel's Elbit Systems this month confirmed it sold a UAV for $50 million to a Latin American country that it didn't identify. Later, Infodefensa.com security and defense Web site identified the buyer as Colombia. Other reports said the UAV was ordered for deployment by the Colombian national police.
Colombia would use the UAV in border control missions notably in the country's northeast along the border with Venezuela but infodefensa.com cited sources saying the Colombian army is also interested in procuring a UAV, AviationWeek reported.
Colombia and Venezuela patched up differences in 2011 but anti-government guerrilla activity in Colombia continues. Colombian officials accuse Venezuela of backing guerrilla groups opposed to the government in Bogota, a charge that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez denies.
Elbit's Hermes 900 tactical UAV is an advanced vehicle that can be deployed in all kinds of difficult atmospheric conditions. The UAV flies at a maximum 33,000 feet and is usually tasked to capture real-time images and transmit them to a universal ground control station.
Hermes 900 can take off and land automatically even in adverse weather conditions, AviationWeek said on its Web site. The UAV's maximum endurance is 40 hours and maximum takeoff weight is 2,134 pounds. It had its maiden flight Dec.14, 2009.
Elbit Systems developed the Hermes 900 as an extension of its Hermes 450 tactical UAV systems, with full compatibility in missions and support infrastructure.
The upgraded UAV features larger multi-payload configurations and higher flight altitude than its predecessor.
The Hermes 900 incorporates an Internal Auto Takeoff and Landing system that enables auto-landing even on alternate non-instrumented runways. It features full redundancy and fault tolerant avionics and electronics architecture.
Elbit says the accompanying universal ground control station can control two UAVs at any given time from a single station while a single operator operates the air vehicle and payloads for each UAV.
In July 2011, Elbit reported the first export sale of its Hermes 900 UAV to the Chilean air force. The Chilean choice followed evaluation of two classes of UAVs. At the high end were the Elbit Hermes 900 and IAI Heron, also from Israel and developed by the Israel Aerospace Industries.
At the lower tactical level were Elbit Hermes 450, and Aerostar from Aeronautics Defense Systems.
Industry sources said Elbit's success in Colombia would likely open it to other markets in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Talarion MALE UAS from Cassidian. Rheinmetall and Cassidian are pooling their Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) activities in tactical, Medium-Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAS and cargo loading systems. The two companies have agreed form a joint venture (JV) where EADS’ military division Cassidian will hold 51 percent and Rheinmetall own the remaining 49 percent of the shares. Both companies are active in the UAS business for many years, research, development, production and support of technologies and systems addressing German military requirements. In recent years the two companies have spent significant R&D efforts in new systems developments, but eventually opted to offer their customers platforms and systems provided by other equipment manufacturers (OEM). The newly announced cooperation will consolidate the offering of the two companies to gain customer support. Getting its UAS business right will be critical for Cassidian, as it expend the potential of manned fighters (namely Eurofighter Typhoon). With alternative programs including the Talarion and Barracuda stalling to gain European government support, Cassidian needs new programs and marketing traction to secure its future. The JV will also give Rheinmetall’s Airborne Systems product unit access to broader development resources and international market access opportunities that had not so far existed to any comparable extent. According to Stefan Zoller, Cassidian Chief Exceutive Officer, the JV will establish the company’s offering “a full product range of customized solutions, including tactical UAS and UAS for medium- and high-altitude.” He said the JV is now positioned as “Europe’s leading provider of Unmanned Aerial Systems”. Klaus Eberhardt, Chairman of the Executive Board of Rheinmetall AG, emphasized the Bremen location of the JV will be securing about 160 positions of Rheinmetall’s employees, to continue supporting the company’s unmanned reconnaissance system KZO (Kleinfluggerät Zielortung) for the German Armed Forces. The site also supports the Heron UAS operated as part of the SAATEG aerial recce system for the German Bundeswehr. KZO is a ground launched, tactical UAV equipped with high-performance sensors used for target acquisition. Harop, a loitering attack drone developed by IAI offers the actionable segment of the WABEP system, through precision engagement. Photo: Rheinmetall defence

TA-50

With the New Year barely underway, South Korea is once again demonstrating a determination to build a formidable military force capable of dealing with potential enemies. The government has signed a $600 million deal with Korea Aerospace Industries (KIA) for 20 FA-50 fighter/attack aircraft based on the highly regarded T-50 advanced jet trainer.
KAI is reporting that the aircraft will be delivered between 2013 and 2014. The FA-50 is a lightweight fighter/attack aircraft incorporating the most advanced technology available in the T-50 Golden Eagle family of aircraft.
KAI also believes that South Korea may increase the order to as many as 60 aircraft for use as replacements for the aging 150 Northrop F-5 aircraft currently being operated.
The FA-50 aircraft ordered are expected to be equipped with the Link 16 tactical link, Elta Systems EL/M-2032 pulse Doppler radar, radar warning systems and a night vision imagery system. Northrop Grumman and Raytheon previously selected the FA-50 as a prime candidate for being outfitted with the same version of active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar slated for use in a United States Air Force F-16 upgrade.
The FA-50 is built to carry a weapon’s payload of 9,920 pounds that includes Boeing’s Joint Direct Attack Munitions and Textron’s CBU-97 Sensor Fused Weapon. In addition, the FA-50 is also fitted with a 20mm cannon and is configured to carry air-to-air missiles.
KAI has also included in the Golden Eagle family, along with the T-50 and the FA-50, a T-50B aerobatic aircraft and an armed TA-50. All versions of the Golden Eagle family feature a single General Electric F404 engine.
South Korea is expected to issue a call for bids for its F-X III project in February to select a replacement for its F-4 Phantom jets. The candidates competing for this lucrative contract include the Boeing F-15 Silent Eagle, Lockheed Martin F-35, Sukhoi PAK FA, and the Eurofighter Typhoon.

Cassidian, Rheinmetall form Unmanned systems’ JV

Talarion MALE UAS from Cassidian.

Rheinmetall and Cassidian are pooling their Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) activities in tactical, Medium-Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAS and cargo loading systems. The two companies have agreed form a joint venture (JV) where EADS’ military division Cassidian will hold 51 percent and Rheinmetall own the remaining 49 percent of the shares. Both companies are active in the UAS business for many years, research, development, production and support of technologies and systems addressing German military requirements. In recent years the two companies have spent significant R&D efforts in new systems developments, but eventually opted to offer their customers platforms and systems provided by other equipment manufacturers (OEM). The newly announced cooperation will consolidate the offering of the two companies to gain customer support.
Getting its UAS business right will be critical for Cassidian, as it expend the potential of manned fighters (namely Eurofighter Typhoon). With alternative programs including the Talarion and Barracuda stalling to gain European government support, Cassidian needs new programs and marketing traction to secure its future. The JV will also give Rheinmetall’s Airborne Systems product unit access to broader development resources and international market access opportunities that had not so far existed to any comparable extent.
According to Stefan Zoller, Cassidian Chief Exceutive Officer, the JV will establish the company’s offering “a full product range of customized solutions, including tactical UAS and UAS for medium- and high-altitude.” He said the JV is now positioned as “Europe’s leading provider of Unmanned Aerial Systems”. Klaus Eberhardt, Chairman of the Executive Board of Rheinmetall AG, emphasized the Bremen location of the JV will be securing about 160 positions of Rheinmetall’s employees, to continue supporting the company’s unmanned reconnaissance system KZO (Kleinfluggerät Zielortung) for the German Armed Forces. The site also supports the Heron UAS operated as part of the SAATEG aerial recce system for the German Bundeswehr.

KZO is a ground launched, tactical UAV equipped with high-performance sensors used for target acquisition. Harop, a loitering attack drone developed by IAI offers the actionable segment of the WABEP system, through precision engagement. Photo: Rheinmetall defence

US Affirms Commitment to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter

Lockheed Martin test pilot Bill Gigliotti flies F-35B production aircraft BF-7 on its first flight Dec. 21, 2011. The short takeoff/vertical landing aircraft will be delivered to the U.S. Marine Corps after completing initial checkout flights at Lockheed Martin’s facility in Fort Worth, Texas. Photo: Lockheed Martin

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced Friday that the United States remains committed to the further development of the Marine Corps’ version of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.  In an address at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Maryland, Mr. Panetta stated his belief that the F-35 is a vital and integral element in the US strategy to maintain and enhance the level of air superiority the nation now enjoys.

Mr. Panetta’s support for the F-35 hinges on his belief that the problems that have plagued the highly advanced fifth-generation stealth aircraft in the past can be overcome and resolved satisfactorily.  The secretary declared in his comments that the US military would continue to dedicate resources to the future development of “cutting-edge” weapons and weapon systems. He also made it clear that the F-35 was not yet completely safe from future changes.
During his visit to Patuxent River, Mr. Panetta took the controls of the aircraft in a flight simulator and was briefed on the present status of progress being made in correcting the technical difficulties encountered in the Navy and Marine Corps models of the aircraft.
Production and development delays, cost overruns, and technical glitches have plagued the F-35 almost from the day of its inception. During the ten years the aircraft has been in development, the overall cost has risen sharply from $233 billion to an estimated $385 billion. It is now the US military’s most expensive weapon’s program in operation. Some analysts fear the F-35 may eventually cost the government more than $1 trillion in its expected 50-year lifespan.
Secretary Panetta is widely expected to formally confirm that the F-35 is a “high-priority” program sometime next week. It remains possible, given the high cost and fiscal constraints, that Mr. Panetta may direct that F-35 production be slowed down to save money while still remaining committed to purchasing the total number of aircraft initially envisioned.
Lockheed Martin is contracted to build three variants of the F-35 – one variant each for the Navy, the Marines, and the Air Force. The three variants are planned to replace the older F-16 Falcons, F/A-18 Hornets, EA-6B Prowlers, and the AV-8B Harriers.  Several key American allies are also expected to buy multiple copies of the fighter.

F-35 is Effectively Off Probation

One year ago, the Marine variant of the F-35 was placed on “probation” as a result of the multiple technical problems developers were experiencing.  Mr. Panetta’s address of Friday effectively removed that probation and any immediate threat that the aircraft would be cancelled.
Lifting the probation is of no real practical importance in the F-35 program, but it does give the program an official “go-ahead” of some real political importance.
The Marine variant of the aircraft has been troubled by technical difficulties fitting a set of doors on the upper surfaces of the aircraft designed to increase the flow of air into the engines. Tail hook problems impacting both Navy and Marine variants have also vexed engineers. It seems that these problems have been solved, but corrective action has not been fully implemented yet.
Praise for lifting the probation was quickly forthcoming from Commandant of the Marine Corps, General James Amos, and from the manufacturer of the Marine variant’s engines, Rolls-Royce.
General Amos also announced on Friday that the Marine Corps would introduce the new aircraft into operating squadrons in a responsible manner and only when the aircraft is deemed fit for duty.  The first production F-35’s for the Marine Corps were delivered to a training unit based at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida earlier in January.
While it is evident the F-35 is not quite ready for “primetime” it is now getting some badly needed official backing that is likely to also ease some misgivings expressed by those of America’s allies most anxious to acquire a fifth-generation stealth aircraft that currently has no equal in the world.  Only time will tell what will happen in the future.

Commentary: Threats to watch in 2012

  On Dec. 18, 2010, a police slap of a vegetable-cum-fruit peddler in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid triggered an "Arab Spring" that no one had forecast and that quickly spawned a long, dark Arab winter.
Before the end of January 2011, violent unrest had spread to Egypt. By Feb. 11, after 18 days of riots, the 30-year dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak ended. Less than a week later, Libya exploded. And on Oct. 20, Moammar Gadhafi, Libya's dictator for 42 years, was mauled and killed by angry revolutionaries.
The top military man in Tripoli is Abdelkrim El Haj, the former al-Qaida operative in Libya who was captured during Gadhafi's regime, turned over to the United States, renditioned to, and tortured by, Thai authorities. He now says he isn't holding the United States accountable but expects "those responsible to be brought to trial."
Former close U.S. ally Egypt will soon fall under the sway of an Islamist Parliament (40 percent Muslim Brotherhood, 25 percent Salafist, or Muslim extremist). Liquor is already out of Cairo stores and can now only be sold to foreigners from locations yet to be determined. Tourism, once 15 percent of national revenue, is down to 5 percent.
The outlook for a Palestinian state is darker still than before. Palestinian extremists are in the ascendancy again as some 340,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank keep expanding and strengthening defenses. They have no intention of leaving or of living under Palestinian sovereignty. A good bet for 2012: a third intifada.
In Iraq, the last U.S. troops have left but some 14,000 Americans remain -- half of them assigned to the largest U.S. Embassy in the world with diplomatic passports and the other half, private security contractors. Already, the threat of sectarian civil war looms between Sunni and the Shiite Muslims now in power.
In today's Iraq, Iran and its Shiite allies, have more influence than the United States. And 2012 should tell whether the $1 trillion U.S. war effort and its 4,400 killed in action and 33,000 wounded (plus an estimated 100,000 Iraqis killed) was the disaster forecast by some prior to the 2003 U.S. invasion.
The end of 2014 is also the end to U.S. military involvement in the Afghan war. What happens after that is the big unknown.
The United States has the clock and Taliban have the time. The Afghan army will require $7 billion-$10 billion a year in U.S. aid to fight on. Will Congress continue to vote such big numbers? It didn't in Vietnam in 1975 -- and resistance to a Communist takeover folded.
Iran is the big unknown in the black swan aviary.
U.S. President Barack Obama, his new generals at the Department of Defense and intelligence chiefs at 17 agencies are firmly aligned against Israeli pre-emption against Iran's nuclear facilities. The key ones are underground and even with Israel's new, U.S.-made deep penetration ordnance, nothing is less certain than the ability to set Iran's nuclear timetable back by more than a year or two.
Some -- e.g., Henry Kissinger -- argue that we should be engaging Iran in a multilateral international solution, along with Russia, China, India and Pakistan, for ending the Afghan war.
The estimated $1 trillion-$3 trillion in precious minerals, including uranium, that lie deep underground in Afghanistan could form the centerpiece lure to accelerate an end to hostilities with a coalition government in Kabul.
In light of the rapidly unfolding crises of 2011, the reluctance of U.S. intelligence agencies to forecast beyond next five years is understandable. As Robert Gates, serving as U.S. secretary of defense, noted two months into NATO's intervention in Libya, "If you'd asked me four months ago if we'd be in Libya today, I would have asked, 'What were you smoking?'"
Al-Qaida has vanished from news media and most have assumed that the killing of its leader Osama bin Laden by U.S. Navy SEALs May 2 put an end to the threat of a terrorist weapon of mass destruction in a major U.S. city.
The killing of major underground leaders is frequently a spur to followers to avenge their death. Terrorism has been the weapon of the weak against the strong from time immemorial. Today, the arc of instability, from West to east Africa to Pakistan to Bangladesh has any number of al-Qaida copycat sympathizers.
Al-Qaida ceased to be centrally directed long before bin Laden's death. Tomorrow, an unmanned drone, launched from a cargo ship a few miles off New York could be the carrier of deadly pestilence.
The Preventive Action's annual report for 2012 is designed to overcome the lack of forecasting ability in the intelligence community by developing a list of plausible human-generated contingencies of relative importance to U.S. national interests, grouped according to levels or categories of risk associated with various types of instability or conflict into three tiers:
The 30 contingencies were sent to a wide selection of more than 300 government officials, policy analysts, academics and journalists for their confidential feedback.
These are the Top 10 that directly threaten the U.S. homeland and are likely to trigger U.S. military involvement:
-- A mass casualty attack on the U.S. homeland or on a treaty ally.
-- A severe North Korean crisis (e.g., armed provocations, internal political instability, advances in nuclear weaponry.
-- A major military incident with China involving U.S. or allied forces.
-- An Iranian nuclear crisis (e.g., surprise advances in nuclear weapons/delivery capability, Israeli response).
-- A highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure (e.g., telecommunications, electrical power, pipeline output, transportation and emergency services.
-- A significant increase in drug trafficking violence in Mexico that spills over into the United States.
-- Severe internal instability in Pakistan triggered by a civil-military crisis or terror attacks.
-- Political instability in Saudi Arabia that endangers global oil supplies.
-- A U.S.-Pakistan military confrontation, triggered by a terror attack or U.S. counter-terror.
-- Intensification of the European sovereign debt crisis that leads to the collapse of the euro, triggering a double-edged transatlantic crisis.
Happy New Year!

Renault delivers gunfire detection systems

  French forces operating in Afghanistan have been supplied Slate acoustic sniper localization systems for integration with VAB armored personnel carriers.
Renault Trucks Defense reports it supplied 80 Slate kits to the French defense procurement agency DGA in late November after receiving an urgent operational requirement order from the agency.
The system is features an acoustic antenna for detecting gunfire -- produced by a 01dB-Metravib.
The Metravib is connected to the TOP 12.7 (Protector M151) remote control weapon system on the armored vehicle. The TOP is made by7 Kongsberg of Norway.
Renault said that when the unit detects a gunshot, crew of the VAB can automatically cue the vehicle's gun turret in the direction of where the gunshot originated and return fire.
Slate also provides vehicle crew with information on whether the gunshot came from a small- or medium-caliber weapon and stores the geographical information in a memory system.
The storage allows crew to engage an attacker with precision fire from the turret-mounted machine gun or grenade launcher even after the vehicle has changed position.
Renault said the Slate system could be connected to information and command systems for sharing of tactical information.
Renault delivered 80 of the systems to French forces.
Kongsberg Protech Systems, maker of the remote-controlled weapons system on the French army vehicles, also provides a variety of high-tech systems to militaries around the world for enhanced situational awareness and protection. Its Protector remote weapons station is currently used by 17 countries.
Renault Trucks Defense designs and manufactures a range of armored vehicles. The French army has more than 4,000 of its VABs in operation.
The VAB is a fully amphibious 4x4 or 4x6 armored personnel carrier or scout car. An air defense variant can be equipped with Mistral missiles. Depending on the variant, the vehicle can carry as many as 10 soldiers in addition to two crew members.
The VAB is 19.6 feet long, 8 feet wide and 6.7 feet high. It's powered by a six-cylinder, in-line water-cooled engine and has a maximum speed of about 57 mph.

Obama presents plan for 'leaner' US military

  President Barack Obama unveiled a strategy on Thursday for a leaner US military focused on countering China's rising power and signaling a shift away from large ground wars against insurgents.
The plan calls for preparing for possible challenges from Iran and China, requiring air and naval power, while virtually ruling out any future counter-insurgency campaigns such as those conducted in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The "defense strategic review" sets out an approach for the US military in a looming era of austerity, as Obama's administration prepares for $487 billion in defense cuts over the next 10 years.
But the US president, anticipating attacks from his Republican rivals in an election year, said reductions would be limited and would not come at the expense of America's military might.
"So yes, our military will be leaner, but the world must know -- the United States is going to maintain our military superiority with armed forces that are agile, flexible and ready for the full range of contingencies and threats," Obama told reporters in a rare appearance at the Pentagon.
White House officials said Obama was deeply involved in the strategy review and sought to portray the president as taking a careful approach to defense spending, based on the advice of leading commanders.
Saying the country was "turning the page on a decade of war," Obama said the new strategy would increasingly focus on Asia, where commanders worry about China's growing military power.
"We'll be strengthening our presence in the Asia Pacific, and budget reductions will not come at the expense of this critical region," he said.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, appearing with Obama along with top officers, said the strategy envisages a "smaller and leaner" force that will expand the military's role in Asia while maintaining a strong presence in the Middle East.
According to the eight-page strategy document, the military will work with allies in the Middle East to ensure security in the Gulf and prevent Iran from securing nuclear weapons.
However, counter-insurgency operations receive a lower priority under the plan, enabling the administration to scale back ground forces.
Panetta said "with the end of US military commitments in Iraq, and the drawdown already under way in Afghanistan, the Army and Marine Corps will no longer need to be sized to support the large scale, long-term stability operations that dominated military priorities and force generation over the past decade."
The US military's top officer, General Martin Dempsey, praised the strategy but acknowledged it carried some risks, which could in some cases mean a slower response or fewer resources for an operation.
"We do accept some risk, as all strategies must. Because we will be somewhat smaller, these risks will be measured in time and capacity," the general said.
But he said the country faced "tough economic times" and had to adapt to new threats.
The chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Buck McKeon, hit out at the strategy and accused Obama of gutting defense.
"The President has packaged our retreat from the world in the guise of a new strategy to mask his divestment of our military and national defense," McKeon, a Republican, said in a statement.
The review reinforces what defense officials have already signaled -- that funds will flow to aircraft, ships, missile defense and high-tech weaponry while the US Army and Marine Corps will be downsized.
Washington's focus on Asia is fueled by concerns over China's growing navy and arsenal of anti-ship missiles that could jeopardize America's military dominance in the Pacific.
In keeping with plans for a smaller force, the strategy discards the doctrine that the military must be prepared to fight two wars at the same time, an idea long debated inside the Pentagon.
Instead, the United States would be ready to fight one war while waging a holding action elsewhere to stave off a second threat.
The strategy review suggests reducing the atomic arsenal without saying how, amid calls from some lawmakers to reduce the number of nuclear-armed submarines.
The review also hints at scaling back the military's footprint in Europe but offered no details, saying "our posture in Europe must also evolve."
Britain's defense minister cautioned Thursday the US pivot to Asia should not neglect Russia, which he called an unpredictable force on the global stage.
The new strategy comes ahead of the proposed defense budget for 2013 due to be released next month, which is expected to call for delays in some weapons programs, including the troubled F-35 fighter.
Despite talk of belt-tightening, the defense budget for 2012 came to $530 billion, not counting the cost of the war in Afghanistan.
Obama said future military spending will still remain high and "larger than roughly the next 10 countries combined."
China state media cautious on new US defence planBeijing (AFP) Jan 6, 2012 - China's official Xinhua news agency said Friday it welcomed a bigger US presence in Asia, but only if it helped promote peace in the region, after President Barack Obama unveiled a new military strategy.
The plan calls for the US military to strengthen its presence in Asia and prepare for possible challenges from countries such as China, while downplaying future huge counter-insurgency campaigns such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Beijing has given no official response to the review, but Xinhua said Friday the United States was welcome to make "more contribution to peace and stability in the Asia Pacific region", while urging it against "warmongering".
"The US role, if fulfilled with a positive attitude and free from a Cold War-style zero-sum mentality, will not only be conducive to regional stability and prosperity, but be good for China," it said in a comment piece.
"However, while boosting its military presence in the Asia Pacific, the United States should abstain from flexing its muscles," it added.
"If the United States indiscreetly applies militarism in the region, it will be like a bull in a china shop, and endanger peace instead of enhancing regional stability."
The United States is increasingly focusing its attention on the Asia Pacific region, where commanders worry about China's growing military power.
The People's Liberation Army is the world's largest active military, and is extremely secretive about its defence programmes, which benefit from a huge and expanding military budget.
In November, Obama went on a week-long tour of the Pacific in a bid to enhance the role of the United States in the region, positioning Marines in northern Australia and pushing for a trans-Pacific trade pact.
Shortly afterwards, China announced it would conduct routine naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean, in what some saw as a symbolic move aimed at the United States.
Meanwhile, the Global Times -- an official, nationalistic daily newspaper -- accused the United States of trying to contain China and called on Beijing to "strengthen its long-range strike abilities and put more deterrence on the US".
"The US must realise that it cannot stop the rise of China and that being friendly to China is in its utmost interests," it said in en editorial.
The new US strategy unveiled on Thursday calls for a leaner military, and also focuses on preventing Iran from securing nuclear weapons

Israel and US to hold joint missile drill

    Israel and the United States are to hold a joint missile defence exercise, the Israeli military said late on Thursday.
Although the exercise, codenamed "Austere Challenge 12" comes at a time of spiralling regional tensions over Iran's suspected nuclear arms programme, the army said the manoeuvres were planned in advance.
"The exercise scenario involves notional, simulated events as well as some field training and is not in response to any real-world event," the military said in a written response to an AFP query
"The US European Command and the Israel Defence Forces periodically conduct routine exercises in Israel. These exercises, which are part of a long-standing strategic partnership, are planned in advance and part of a routine training cycle designed to improve the interoperability of our defence systems."
It did not say when the exercise would take place.
Local media said that it would get underway in the spring and would be the biggest ever joint manoeuvres between the two allies.
Israel and the United States have a longstanding strategic alliance and are jointly developing the Arrow anti ballistic missile system.
In November the Jewish state staged a major civil defence drill in the Tel Aviv region aimed at simulating a response to conventional and non-conventional missile attacks.
Although Iran says its nuclear programme is for civilian use only, the international community believes it is striving to acquire nuclear arms and Israel says that it is a prime target of the Islamic republic.
Iran has threatened to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil flows, if it is hit with sanctions, and has warned the United States not to send an aircraft carrier back into the Gulf.
Last week it test-fired three missiles during war games east of the strait at the entrance to the Gulf.

Britain voices concern over future of F-35 in US

    British Defence Minister Philip Hammond voiced concern on Thursday about possible cuts or delays in the US F-35 fighter program as London plans to equip a future aircraft carrier with the stealthy aircraft.
In a visit to the US capital, Hammond said he wanted to hear from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta about the potential effect of a new US military strategy and budget plan on the future of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
"One of the things I hope to understand in the meetings I am to have later today is what, if any, impact the announcements being made today will have on the Joint Strike Fighter program," Hammond told an audience at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.
Hammond's visit coincided with the unveiling of a revised American military strategy that calls for a "leaner" force as the Pentagon plans for $487 billion in cuts over the next decade.
At the Pentagon's presentation Thursday, officials gave no details as to possible changes to the F-35 program, which has been plagued by cost overruns and delays due to a spate of technical problems. US officials have acknowledged that the pace of production will likely be scaled back but have yet to offer specifics.
After Hammond's meeting with his American counterpart, the Pentagon issued a statement confirming the two discussed the US strategic review but made no mention of the F-35 jet.
The Pentagon said the two defense chiefs signed an agreement on "carrier cooperation" that will allow the United States to help Britain train crews and pilots as the country's new aircraft carrier will not be ready for years.
"Since the British currently are regenerating their carrier capability, it also provides a framework for the US to assist our close ally in developing a robust and modern carrier force," press secretary George Little told AFP in an email.
Britain, one of a group of countries supporting the F-35 program, is counting on the Joint Strike Fighter to fly from its future aircraft carrier, the Prince of Wales.
The Pentagon has commissioned the construction of three versions of the plane, including one designed to land on an aircraft carrier.
"We are committed to purchasing the carrier variant," Hammond said at the Atlantic Council event.
"But of course, if there is any slippage in the program, any reduction in the US numbers required could have impacts on availability and on unit costs," said Hammond, citing pressures on Britain's defense budget.
"As you may know we are already under some pressure from public opinion in the UK over the fact that we are going to build and launch carriers some years before we have any aircraft to fly off with," he said.
"Really, it's a caricaturist's dream -- a carrier with no jets to fly on them. So the prospect of any further delays to the carrier variant would be of concern to us."
At an estimated $385 billion, the F-35 is the Pentagon's most expensive weapons program ever.
The program calls for building 2,443 of the fighters, with each plane costing $113 million in fiscal year 2011 dollars.
Manufactured by defense giant Lockheed Martin, there are plans for three models: a standard variant of the aircraft, an F-35A, a short take-off version, the F-35B, and a fighter designed to fly from aircraft carriers.
Britain has scrapped plans to buy the short take-off F-35B and reportedly plans to buy 138 F-35 fighters.

Pressure on Europe to bolster military as US shifts to Asia

    As the US military turns its gaze to Asia, cash-strapped Europe is under pressure to modernise its armed forces despite the economic crisis so it can police its own neighbourhood.
By declaring that the US military posture in Europe must "evolve," the new doctrine unveiled by President Barack Obama on Thursday hints that Washington will reduce its footprint on a continent it has protected for decades.
The trans-Atlantic bond, sealed over two world wars and the Cold War, is likely to remain strong, but the defence cuts and strategic shift to counter China adds urgency to calls for Europeans to beef up their forces.
"This speech is not a surprise to us," said Claude-France Arnould, the head of the European Defence Agency, which is in charge of developing ways for Europe's armed forces to pool military resources.
"The Americans are asking Europeans to cooperate more between themselves in order to develop their military capacity on a greater scale," she told AFP.
The United States has scolded Europeans for cutting military spending for years. With the eurozone debt crisis forcing governments to slash budgets, the Americans and NATO are encouraging them to spend "smarter" together.
The Libyan air war exposed the huge gap in capabilities.
While the Europeans carried out most NATO bombings, the United States provided 75 percent of all air-to-air refuelling aircraft and surveillance flights that were vital to the operation.
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has identified aerial tankers and drones as key needs but admits the cost of sophisticated military equipment is rising faster than inflation and gross domestic product.
Citing the lessons of Afghanistan and Libya, British Defence Secretary Philip Hammond this week criticised fellow NATO allies, saying the contribution of some of its members "falls short of what our collective defence requires."
"Too many countries are failing to meet their financial responsibilities to NATO, and so failing to maintain appropriate and proportionate capabilities," he said in a speech in Washington on Thursday.
"Too many are opting out of operations or contributing but a fraction of what they should be capable of," he said. "This is a European problem, not an American one."
The United States, which accounts for 75 percent of spending at NATO while the remaining quarter is shared by the 27 other allies, has warned Europeans that they cannot rely on the US military forever.
European military budgets have fallen seven percent in five years to reach 194 billion euros ($247 billion) overall in 2010. This compares to Washington's nearly $700 billion defence budget.
But the US share "is likely to drop significantly," said David Reeths, Europe director at security experts IHS Jane's A&D Consulting.
"Considering the low and dropping level of European investment in their militaries, it's hard to imagine that this would not also have a negative impact on the overall readiness and military effectiveness of NATO," he said.
The new US military strategy does not indicate how many troops may be withdrawn from Europe, but they are already way down from Cold War levels.
Some 300,000 US troops were posted across Europe at the end of the Cold War. Two decades after the Berlin Wall fell, they now number fewer than 100,000, mostly spread across Germany, Britain and Italy.
"While the report itself is intentionally vague, reading between the lines, it is clear that we must be prepared for a major reduction in US forces stationed or otherwise present in and near Europe," Reeths said.
Despite the shift to Asia, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said Washington was committed to NATO's Article 5, a pledge that any attack on one alliance member was an attack on all allies.
The United States still has strategic interests in Europe as it puts it closer to hotspots in the Middle East and allows it to keep an eye on Russia, said Lisa Aronsson, expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
"The focus on Asia doesn't necessarily mean less attention to the Middle East or Europe or Latin America," she told AFP.
"The US is a global power with global interests and there's been too much focus on South Asia and Iraq, so I think this is the right course and Europeans should welcome it."

Missile shipment leaves Finland for South Korea

    A British-registered vessel detained in Finland for two weeks after it was found to be carrying 69 Patriot missiles without proper documentation left the country Friday, a shipping official said.
"The (Thor Liberty) left this morning at around 4.00 am local time," a shipping agent representative told AFP, adding that it was bound for South Korea and China.
Thor Liberty had been at the southeastern Finnish port of Kotka since December 15, when the US-made surface-to-air missiles were found on board without the necessary authorisation to transit through Finnish territory.
A Finnish prosecutor last week charged the ship's Ukrainian captain and first mate with negligence for the improper loading of explosives, but lifted a travel ban on the officers.
The vessel was also found to be carrying 150 tons of nitroguanidine, a chemical used as an explosive propellant, stored in cardboard boxes rather than shipping containers.
Finnish officials launched an investigation into possible illegal transit of defence materiel but Berlin later said the missiles were from the German military and were destined for South Korea.
A German defence ministry spokesman said the weapons were being shipped as part of a "legal sale on the basis of an accord between two states at the government level" and that export authorisations were in order.
However a senior Finnish defence ministry official said Finland had not received a transit licence application from Germany.
The Finnish government on Wednesday approved the missiles' transit through Finnish territory to Seoul but customs officials said they were nonetheless continuing their probe.
"We will continue the investigation to try to find out what really happened, and whether anyone was negligent," the head of the Finnish customs anti-crime unit, Petri Lounatmaa, told AFP.

Fernandez shakes up Argentine military

   Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has reshuffled the country's military command, a move seen by critics as indication of continuing tensions between her administration and the defense establishment.
Fernandez announced major changes at the top of the military command structure just before she was hospitalized for treatment of thyroid cancer, which, for presidential loyalists, has soured the success of her landslide victory in elections last year.
The military reshuffle reinforced criticism that the president's preference for a strong concentration of power weakened Argentina's democracy and left the country ill-prepared for transition.
Fernandez aides say the president is fine after the surgery but panic over her health is seen likely to affect both politics and the economy.
The military shuffle was interpreted as part of Fernandez's aim to remove potential opponents in the military establishment and to clear the air after persistent reports of corruption and a scandal over the navy's surveillance and spying on politicians and other influential people.
Controversial navy chief Adm. Jorge Godoy, who was removed earlier and is facing criminal charges over the surveillance and spying, was replaced by Rear Adm. Carlos Alberto Paz, a veteran of the 1982 Falklands war with Britain.
Chief of Staff Operations commander Jorge Tellado would be replaced by Brig. Gen. Humberto Claudio Trisano, an official announcement said.
Another 12 army generals, 10 air force brigadiers and 13 rear admirals and vice admirals were ordered into early retirement the following day.
Fernandez and the military establishment have had a tense relationship most of the time since she rose to power in 2007. The main issues have been personnel pay, cash for military modernization and officers' reported unhappiness over having to report to civilians after many years of military dictatorship.
The uneasy relationship suffered more strains when the spying scandal broke in 2006. The navy faced a criminal investigation after a complaint launched by the Center for Legal and Social Studies, a think tank reported to be a victim of the spying and surveillance, and allegations by a young seaman who refused to take part in the spying activities.
A naval intelligence unit was found to be maintaining a hefty file on Nestor Kirchner, president of Argentina at that time and husband of Fernandez, who died in October 2010. The file indicated that the navy's spies had tracked Kirchner since the 1970s.
The government, the legislators and the media said the navy's spying operation was the military's answer to Kirchner's plans to bring to justice some of the perpetrators of the kidnapping, torture and murder during the 1976-83 dictatorship. Thousands of people perished in the military led campaigns against dissidents and suspected opponents of the dictatorship.
Godoy apologized in 2004 for the navy's part in the torture, killings and disappearances but failed to remove the stigma of distrust and guilt. The Argentine navy's Mechanical School was one of the major torture centers during the dictatorship.
Despite this week's reshuffles some key senior officers retained their posts. These include the armed forces Chief of Staff Brig. Gen. Jorge Chevalier, army commander Lt. Gen. Luis Alberto Pozzi and air force Chief of the General Staff Brig. Gen. Normando Costantino.

Outside View: North Korea in 2012

  In 1863, President Abraham Lincoln gave his famous Gettysburg Address, querying whether a nation established "four score and seven years" ago and built upon the principles of liberty and equality, then fighting a "great civil war," could "long endure."
The United States did endure and this year celebrates the 236th anniversary of its birth.
In 2012, we see a nation -- North Korea -- established "three score and three years" ago and so committed to the bondage and inequality of its people, we are left to wonder how it can so "long endure."
With the death of Kim Jong Il on Dec. 17 and the accession to the "throne" of a third generation of the Kim dynasty -- the deceased leader's 28-year-old son Kim Jong Un -- the outside world remains baffled how an enslaved people, subjected to 63 years of brutal, autocratic rule, exhibits no signs of rising up against their master.
Factor into the equation of life in the North the famines regularly devastating the country, leaving thousands dead. Tragically, these famines could be eradicated by a leadership more concerned about the welfare of its people than its own survivability.
How is it that a starving population, so abused for so long, still refuses to bite the hand that fails to feed it?
Under the Kim dynasty, the country has been turned into a laboratory experiment in mind control. By keeping their people in total isolation from the rest of the world, controlling the flow of information, deifying its leadership and imposing fear where these other factors fail to achieve the desired result, the Kim leadership has been able to maintain control.
What is the main contributing factor to this control? Is it the product of a population's mind so denied information access and otherwise isolated from the world community that people really believe, as they have been programmed to believe, no matter how bad things are in their country, things are far worse outside of it? Is it simply fear? Or is it a combination?
The North Koreans' situation brings to mind an earlier generation's plight in choosing between inaction driven by fear or taking action in spite of it.
It was World War II. Thousands of British Royal Air Force prisoners of war were housed at the Germans' notorious Stalag Luft III camp -- immortalized by the 1963 movie "The Great Escape" -- where escape was deemed impossible. Up to the challenge, prisoners dug a hundred foot escape tunnel. On the evening of March 24, 1944, one of the biggest prisoner escapes of the war was attempted.
For some, freedom was short-lived; for most, fatal. Only three escapees reached safety. Seventy-three others were recaptured -- of which 23 were returned to the camp. The remaining 50 were lined up alongside a road and shot in the back of the head, executed as an example to others. The Germans' message was clear -- escape carried a death sentence.
Fear obviously is an effective weapon in molding group conduct. But for these prisoners, it proved otherwise. Despite the fear of death looming overhead, they began construction on another tunnel -- but for a different purpose. Not an escape tunnel, it sought to take the fight to a brutal enemy by accessing an armory inside the camp to access weapons and fight their way out.
The POWs had weighed their fear of death against their loss of freedom -- with the scales tilting in favor of the latter. Although there was risk in pursuing it, life without freedom was worse than the risk of death fighting for it.
While the Stalag Luft III story is one of courageous men able to overcome their fear of death to fight for their freedom, it involves a critical element missing from the North Korea situation -- one missing precisely because Pyongyang's leadership has effectively denied it to them.
The POWs at Stalag Luft III had a taste of something no North Korean ever has. Born and bred in a free society, the POWs were fully aware of its benefits. They had enjoyed those freedoms to the extent they were willing to fight those withholding them.
The average North Korean has no idea what treasures a free society provides. They are unable to comprehend the joys of freedom of choice to do what one wishes to do, free of governmental interference. Having never experienced freedom, they lack man's natural instinct to lay down their life to fight for it.
An empty stomach can do much to cause one not so inclined to fight for a better life to overcome the fear of death to do so. Whether the North Korean people are capable of reaching that point remains to be seen. But, even so, their leadership denies them the basic tools of communication to the extent necessary to effectively organize anti-government protests. Accordingly, such an effort might well prove fatal before a popular revolution can be mounted.
Unfortunately for the people, the Kim dynasty has fully mastered the principles of the art of slavery. And, accordingly, it is highly doubtful the Arab Spring will ever see daylight in North Korea.
The tunnel by which the British sought to launch an attack against their German guards was never completed as the war ended before work on the tunnel could -- but they never forgot the 50 fellow prisoners who sacrificed their lives.
Freedom will prove a much greater challenge for, and extract a much larger toll from, North Koreans who, sadly, may not even yet know what it is they wish to fight for.
(James. G. Zumwalt, is a retired U.S. Marine Corps officer who heads consulting firm Admiral Zumwalt and Consultants, Inc. Zumwalt made 10 trips to North Korea from 1994-2004. He has published many articles in various publications and is author of "Bare Feet, Iron Will -- Stories from the Other Side of Vietnam's Battlefields.")
(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

   Israel's Defense Ministry chief Udi Shani has flown to South Korea for what looks to be the final round of talks on a hotly contested $1 billion contract for 25-30 supersonic trainer jets sought by Korean Aerospace Industries and Italy's Alenia Aermacchi.
Shani, the ministry's director general, was in Italy last week for bargaining sessions with Alenia Aermacchi, which has offered its M-346 Master as a replacement for the Israeli air force's venerable Vietnam War-era Douglas A-4 Skyhawks, which are being retired.
KAI is offering its T-50 Golden Eagle.
Air force sources say the two aircraft were pretty much evenly matched regarding operational capabilities. The deciding factor will be who offers the best deals to sweeten the pot for Israel's defense industry in a global market increasingly driven by export orders as military spending in the United States and Europe shrinks.
The Italians have offered deals with state-owned Israel Aerospace Industries, flagship of Israel's defense sector, worth $ 1 billion. In December, Seoul upped the ante by dangling potential deals worth $5 billion.
The contest has taken some bizarre twists and turns.
At one point, it looked like the T-50 was the front-runner. But then the South Koreans complained Israel had initialed a preliminary agreement with Italy, which if it went ahead was expected to be part of what the Haaretz daily termed "a wide-ranging trade deal" between the two countries.
Amos Harel, one of Israel's leading defense writers, reported in Haaretz that seven months ago Shani had indeed inked a preliminary deal with his Italian counterpart.
"The document, which was formulated according to demands submitted by Israel, expanded the deal beyond its original framework," Harel observed.
Italy reportedly pledged if Israel signed with Alenia Aermacchi, "the two sides would sign additional deals worth more than $1 billion."
These would include joint development of satellite projects, probably involving IAI, and the sale of unmanned aerial vehicles, an Israeli specialty, to Italy.
The Jerusalem Post recently reported that Rome was discussing a possible barter deal under which Italy would get two AWACs aircraft from IAI in exchange for the M-346 deal.
But KAI has come up with a long-term package deal potentially worth $5 billion to persuade the Israelis to go for the T-50.
"KAI alone has offered Israel more than $1 billion in industrial cooperation if its aircraft is chosen," The Jerusalem Post reported recently. "The remaining deals are expected from the South Korean government."
"Potential cooperation could be on the T-50, our helicopters and other programs," the Post quoted Enes Park, KAI's executive vice president for marketing, as saying.
Park also said KAI is having talks with IAI, flagship of Israel's defense sector, and Haifa-based Elbit Systems, one of the world's largest defense electronics manufacturers, about joint ventures that could involve lucrative deals for Israeli companies.
Italy had been seen as a front-runner because of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's close relations with Prime Minister Silvia Berlusconi. But Berlusconi's resignation in November, hastened by a slew of political scandals, may have undermined the Italian position regarding the advanced trainer contract.
Italian hopes took another hit Nov. 19 when an M-346 crashed into the Persian Gulf soon after takeoff from Dubai where it had participated in the prestigious air show.
The pilot and co-pilot ejected safely. The cause of the accident hasn't been announced.
Meantime, KAI has garnered considerable support among Israel's defense companies, largely due to the fat contracts Seoul is offering if the T-50 is selected.
Seoul has also indicated that if Israel buys the Italian trainer, all military procurement deals between the Jewish state and South Korea would be scrapped, Israel's media says.
Current defense deals between the two are worth some $280 million a year to Israel.
Seoul has shown keen interest in acquiring the Iron Dome counter-rocket system built by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.
Israel is keen to export this and other systems such as IAI's mobile high-altitude, anti-ballistic Arrow and the medium-range David's Sling system Rafael is developing.
The South Koreans have also expressed interest in acquiring Israeli unmanned aerial systems, anti-tank missiles, command-and-control centers and upgrades for combat jets.

   India's air force has completed more trials of an EADS Airbus 330 and an Ilyushin 78 air-to-air refueling aircraft as part of its latest attempt to purchase six planes, likely for around $2 billion.
The capability assessment at Gwalior Air Base in north central India followed trials in Spain and Russia in July, a report by the Indian news Web site Rediff.com said.
The latest tender for a Multi-role Tanker Transport was reissued in September 2010, nine months after a similar MRTT contract featuring the same two tankers for around $1.06 billion was stopped.
India's finance ministry questioned the value for money offered during the previous tender issued in 2006. A major issue was the fact that the air force already operates six of the four-engine IL-78 tankers bought in 2004.
The Finance Ministry argued that buying more Ilyushins would be cheaper.
Despite this, the air force chose the Airbus 330 over the Il-78 in 2009. But the Finance Ministry quashed the deal in early 2010, saying a re-tender was needed using better procurement processes and assessment methods.
The Gwalior trials had the planes refueling Su-30MKI, Mirage 2000H and MiG-29 aircraft operated by the Indian air force, the Rediff report said.
Sealed bids from Airbus and Ilyushin will be opened later this year.
Last month, Russia and India signed a preliminary deal for Russia to sell 42 more Su-30 MKI fighter jets in kit form and provide technical assistance during their production.
The jets will be assembled in India by Hindustan Aeronautics. The aircraft's integrated electronic warfare system has a Tarang radar warning system made by the Indian government's Defense Research and Development Organization.
The Airbus A330 tanker is operated by Australia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom.
In November, Australia took delivery of its third A330 MRTT as part of a five-aircraft order. It was converted from an Airbus A330 jetliner airframe by Qantas Defense Services in Brisbane, Australia, Airbus said at the time.
Australia's fourth and fifth MRTT aircraft are scheduled for delivery this year.
Airbus's attempt to break into the U.S. defense market has suffered so far a similar fate to that its Indian experience.
The U.S. Air Force issued a request for proposal for 100 air-to-air tanker in 2006 and Airbus went head to head with Boeing and its 767.
Airbus, with its partner Northrop Grumman won the U.S. Air Force contract in mid 2008 but a complaint by Boeing over the lease agreement meant the tender was reissued in 2009.
Boeing won the $35 billion contract in February 2011.

Gulf states brace for unwanted US-Iran war

    The Arab states that lie just miles across the Gulf from Iran are nervously eyeing the prospects of a war between Tehran and the West that none of them want and all know could devastate their economies.
This very real fear is prompting the oil-rich states to enhance their defences while hoping that diplomacy can rein in Tehran's regional ambitions and put an end to its worrying nuclear programme.
"No one in the Gulf States wants war but everyone is preparing for the possibility that it might happen," said military analyst Riad Kahwaji.
Tension has escalated as the West continues to squeeze Tehran over its nuclear programme, with the EU threatening a total ban on Iranian oil imports.
Iran has threatened to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz -- which links the Gulf to the Arabian Sea and through which 20 percent of the world's sea-transported oil flows -- if its petroleum sales are blocked.
The United States, whose navy's Fifth Fleet is based in the Gulf state of Bahrain and which has a military presence in a number of other countries -- has told Tehran bluntly that it will not tolerate any such move.
These staunch Washington allies would be sucked into war with Iran if Tehran targets them, said Kahwaji, who runs the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (Inegma).
"The clock is ticking, and we in the Gulf do not have control over it," said Kuwaiti political analyst Sami al-Faraj in reference to a potential American or Israeli strike against Iran.
Many times in the past, Iran has warned that it would attack US military facilities in the Gulf Arab states in the event of war.
In addition to the Fifth Fleet, Qatar hosts the US Central Command, there are around 23,000 US troops based in Kuwait and some 2,000 US military personnel in the United Arab Emirates.
The "Mashreq" website, which is close to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, has said targets in the Gulf have already been selected, according to the pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem Al-Thani, whose country has tried in the past to bridge the gap between Tehran and Gulf nations, said the latter should contribute to resolving the crisis.
"I think all of us have an interest in not having any conflicts in the Gulf," he said recently, saying the Gulf states are "obviously worried" by the rising US-Iranian tension.
"We have experienced military conflicts and we all know that there is no winner in such conflicts, especially for the countries around the Gulf," he said.
In addition to external threats, Gulf states have to deal with the threat of so-called sleeper cells that Iran is suspected of deploying across the region.
"We hear of preventive measures in many countries in dealing with sleeper cells belonging to Iran," Kahwaji said.
The desire to avoid war is accompanied by a wish to curb Iran's increasing regional influence.
"There are two schools now in the Gulf," said Faraj.
"One completely rejects resorting to war unless imposed.
"The second sees the need to counter Iranian interference in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Sudan, and its fanning of sectarian tension (in the Gulf), though not necessarily through armed conflict."
The second school "has become stronger" recently, he added.
Faraj told AFP: "It is the Gulf countries that will suffer the most because we are within the range of Iranian rockets," noting, along with Kahwaji that they have strategic oil installations and financial and business centres on their coasts, in close range from Iran's shores.
Saudi Arabia's major oil terminal of Ras Tanura, for instance, is only some 180 kilometres (111 miles) away from Iran's shores. Abu Dhabi, another major Arab oil producer is only 220 kilometres (136 miles) away.
As they wait, Gulf States are stepping up their defence purchases.
Last month, Saudi Arabia signed a deal worth $29.4 billion to buy 84 US F-15 fighter jets, and upgrade 70 other jets.
Shortly afterwards, a $3.48 billion UAE armament deal came to light, including the advanced anti-missile Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (Thaad).
Earlier in 2011, the United States and Saudi Arabia announced a $1.7 billion deal to strengthen Patriot missile batteries, while Kuwait bought 209 missiles for $900 million.